Lee's Baseball Blog

Note: This post first appeared on the sonsofsamhorn.com web site in April 2015 and is re-posted here with permission. All games are the culmination of every play, every action that occurs from start to finish. As we all know, some plays mean more than others, and often the outcome hinges on that one moment, that one choice, that one action. These can seem fairly inconsequential at the time, their full impact only becoming apparent as the rest of the game plays out. But hindsight can be a wonderful thing, and when we reflect on these plays they can illuminate a particularly beautiful aspect of a particularly beautiful sport. The Red Sox’ 1-0 win over the Rays on  April 21st   pivoted around one such sequence of events. On a fairly routine grounder back to the pitcher, Mookie Betts took off from first (a certain out at second), and managed to disturb Rays’ 2B  Ryan Brett  just enough that his throw eluded  Logan Forsythe  at first. What could have been a...

Note: This post first appeared on sonsofsamhorn.com in May 2015 and is re-posted here with permission. Hey you! Yes, you! The kid with the blue hoodie sitting down the left field line at  Friday’s Red Sox-Yankees game . The one who reached out and interfered with  Ryan Hanigan ’s 4th inning single, resulting in fan interference that sent  Xander Bogaerts  back to 3rd, costing the Red Sox a run. Yeah, tonight’s game. You know, the one the Red Sox lost by a run. I know you got ejected. I know your dad was really,  really  upset at the usher for booting you. Boo f*cking hoo. You screw up like that, you get what you deserve. As far as I can figure, that cost your team 0.5 wins. You, Mr. Blue Hoodie, now sport a -0.5 fanWAR. You know what a marginal win is worth? Last I checked it was about $7 million. You made a $3.5 million mistake. You. Are. An idiot. Any fan who sits within arm’s length of a ball in play has a sacred responsibility. You have to ...

Note: this piece originally appeared on SonsOfSamHorn.com in April 2017 and is re-posted here with permission. A while back I wrote an article entitled “ The Biggest Play in MLB History ”, and as a result of that piece I learned of  Rany Jazayerli ’s earlier, and even more comprehensive, study called    “ The 15 Biggest Plays in Baseball History” , published on the dearly-departed Grantland site back in October 2015. Since then, another play has moved into this pantheon –  Rajai Davis ’s two-run homer in the eighth inning of Game 7 of the 2016 World Series – which lifted the Indians’ championship chances from 14% to 53%, making it bigger than Mazeroski’s HR and, sadly for Rajai and the Tribe, the biggest play ever by a player on a team that didn’t win the series. Both Jazayerli and I used the same approach – look for large  Win Probability Added   plays in critical World Series games, by searching the treasure trove that is  baseball-r...